Surging Sparks ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $102.59.
9 packs plus $9.81 in promo value produce $30.96 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−77%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $133.55.
Expected Loss
−$102.59
The average opening result after paying $133.55 sealed.
Open Average
$30.96
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$19.81
Expected range $0.90-$3.80 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.35
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 6 rarity tiers. Based on 8,000 pack openings.
$2.35 × 9 packs = $21.15
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$21.15 + $9.81 promos = $30.96
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$30.96 × 0.64 = $19.81
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $30.96 ÷ $133.55 = 23.2% • Cash-out: $19.81 ÷ $133.55 = 14.8%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.35 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 11 | $81.54 | 1.15% | $0.94 | $8.46 | 40.0% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 23 | $9.54 | 7.70% | $0.73 | $6.57 | 31.1% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 21 | $3.99 | 6.70% | $0.27 | $2.43 | 11.5% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 18 | $1.35 | 16.70% | $0.23 | $2.07 | 9.8% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $22.67 | 0.53% | $0.12 | $1.08 | 5.1% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 8 | $1.26 | 5.00% | $0.06 | $0.54 | 2.6% |
| Total | $2.35 | $21.15 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Surging Sparks, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Pikachu ex - 238/191
#238/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$354.87
+$3.33 EV
Latias ex - 239/191
#239/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$195.67
+$1.80 EV
Milotic ex - 237/191
#237/191 · SIR
1 in 957 packs
$143.31
+$1.35 EV
Latios - 203/191
#203/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$38.40
+$1.17 EV
Pikachu ex - 219/191
#219/191 · UR
1 in 313 packs
$34.72
+$0.99 EV
Ceruledge - 197/191
#197/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$24.96
+$0.72 EV
Pikachu ex - 247/191
#247/191 · HR
1 in 1132 packs
$95.15
+$0.72 EV
Latias ex - 076/191
#076/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$5.16
+$0.45 EV
Pikachu ex - 057/191
#057/191 · RR
1 in 108 packs
$4.86
+$0.45 EV
Mesprit - 204/191
#204/191 · IR
1 in 299 packs
$13.38
+$0.36 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 8,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Surging-Sparks-Pull-Rates, https://cardchill.com/article/pokemon-tcg-investment-report-surging-sparks-booster-box). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($133.55) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($133.55) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($9.81) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Sparks Booster Box | $283.75 | $84.60 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks ETB | $133.55 | $30.96 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks PC ETB | $284.72 | $110.55 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Bundle | $61.60 | $14.10 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks 3 Pack Blister | $38.41 | $7.55 | −80% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Single Pack Blister | $14.75 | $2.60 | −82% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Build & Battle Box | $58.48 | $16.10 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Sleeved Booster | $25.25 | $2.35 | −91% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Art Bundle | $35.36 | $9.40 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Surging Sparks Booster Pack | $7.92 | $2.35 | −70% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $301.22 | $155.26 | −48% | KEEP SEALED |
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $706.33 | $355.02 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $174.26 | $79.27 | −55% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $208.86 | $91.64 | −56% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $176.18 | $75.15 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $170.55 | $71.77 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $281.51 | $116.84 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paradox Rift PC ETB | Paradox Rift | $191.00 | $77.73 | −59% | KEEP SEALED |