Prismatic Evolutions Surprise Box
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $29.05.
7 packs plus $1.00 in promo value produce $22.77 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−56%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $51.82.
Expected Loss
−$29.05
The average opening result after paying $51.82 sealed.
Open Average
$22.77
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$14.57
Expected range $0.00-$7.84 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $3.11
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 1,200 pack openings.
$3.11 × 7 packs = $21.77
This product contains 7 booster packs.
$21.77 + $1.00 promos = $22.77
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$22.77 × 0.64 = $14.57
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $22.77 ÷ $51.82 = 43.9% • Cash-out: $14.57 ÷ $51.82 = 28.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $3.11 EV per pack for this 7-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/7pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 32 | $118.83 | 2.20% | $2.61 | $18.27 | 83.9% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 26 | $1.77 | 16.70% | $0.30 | $2.10 | 9.6% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 5 | $15.92 | 0.80% | $0.13 | $0.91 | 4.2% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 12 | $0.67 | 7.70% | $0.05 | $0.35 | 1.6% |
| ACE SPEC Rare(ACE) | 6 | $0.47 | 4.70% | $0.02 | $0.14 | 0.6% |
| Total | $3.11 | $21.77 | 100% | |||
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Prismatic Evolutions, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Umbreon ex - 161/131
#161/131 · SIR
1 in 1455 packs
$1230.74
+$5.95 EV
Sylveon ex - 156/131
#156/131 · SIR
1 in 1455 packs
$301.06
+$1.47 EV
Leafeon ex - 144/131
#144/131 · SIR
1 in 1455 packs
$248.68
+$1.19 EV
Pikachu ex - 179/131
#179/131 · HR
1 in 625 packs
$52.46
+$0.56 EV
Umbreon ex - 060/131
#060/131 · RR
1 in 156 packs
$5.21
+$0.21 EV
Eevee ex - 075/131
#075/131 · RR
1 in 156 packs
$4.86
+$0.21 EV
Flareon ex - 014/131
#014/131 · RR
1 in 156 packs
$3.89
+$0.14 EV
Eri
#136/131 · UR
1 in 156 packs
$1.13
+$0.07 EV
Mela
#140/131 · UR
1 in 156 packs
$0.78
+$0.07 EV
Prime Catcher
#119/131 · ACE
1 in 128 packs
$0.71
+$0.07 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,200 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Prismatic-Evolutions-Pull-Rates, https://screenrant.com/pokemon-tcg-prismatic-evolutions-pull-rates/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $22.99. Current sealed price ($51.82) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($51.82) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($1.00) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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See how this collection stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| Collection | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivid Voltage Build & Battle Box | Vivid Voltage | $50.94 | $40.94 | −20% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Larry | Ascended Heroes | $22.07 | $13.82 | −37% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Collection - Erika | Ascended Heroes | $23.58 | $13.82 | −41% | KEEP SEALED |
| Phantasmal Flames Build & Battle Box | Phantasmal Flames | $48.51 | $27.94 | −42% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes Premium Poster Collection | Ascended Heroes | $135.34 | $73.79 | −45% | KEEP SEALED |
| 151 Sam's Club Mini Tins Bundle | Pokemon 151 | $176.32 | $88.80 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable Kingambit Illustration Collection | Shrouded Fable | $37.65 | $18.85 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Astral Radiance Build & Battle Box | Astral Radiance | $36.59 | $17.75 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |