Paldean Fates PC ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $467.20.
11 packs plus $89.34 in promo value produce $151.38 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−76%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $618.58.
Expected Loss
−$467.20
The average opening result after paying $618.58 sealed.
Open Average
$151.38
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$96.88
Expected range $0.17-$11.11 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $5.64
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 7 rarity tiers. Based on 1,500 pack openings.
$5.64 × 11 packs = $62.04
This product contains 11 booster packs.
$62.04 + $89.34 promos = $151.38
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$151.38 × 0.64 = $96.88
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $151.38 ÷ $618.58 = 24.5% • Cash-out: $96.88 ÷ $618.58 = 15.7%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $5.64 EV per pack for this 11-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/11pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 8 | $171.14 | 1.72% | $2.94 | $32.34 | 52.1% |
| Shiny Rare(SHR) | 120 | $7.27 | 25.00% | $1.82 | $20.02 | 32.3% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare(SUR) | 12 | $5.04 | 7.70% | $0.39 | $4.29 | 6.9% |
| Hyper Rare(HR) | 6 | $9.15 | 1.61% | $0.15 | $1.65 | 2.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $1.04 | 13.30% | $0.14 | $1.54 | 2.5% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 3 | $2.04 | 7.10% | $0.14 | $1.54 | 2.5% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 5 | $0.93 | 6.70% | $0.06 | $0.66 | 1.1% |
| Total | $5.64 | $62.04 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Paldean Fates, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mew ex - 232/091
#232/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$831.14
+$19.69 EV
Charizard ex - 234/091
#234/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$290.03
+$6.82 EV
Gardevoir ex - 233/091
#233/091 · SIR
1 in 465 packs
$162.04
+$3.85 EV
Mew ex - 216/091
#216/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$32.23
+$2.31 EV
Pikachu - 131/091
#131/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$74.13
+$1.65 EV
Snorlax
#202/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$67.54
+$1.54 EV
Mimikyu -160/091
#160/091 · SHR
1 in 480 packs
$60.41
+$1.43 EV
Charizard ex - 054/091
#054/091 · RR
1 in 75 packs
$4.85
+$0.66 EV
Pawmi - 226/091
#226/091 · IR
1 in 42 packs
$2.54
+$0.66 EV
Gardevoir ex - 217/091
#217/091 · SUR
1 in 156 packs
$8.12
+$0.55 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 1,500 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Paldean-Fates-Pull-Rates/23de3e93-0d0f-4ae0-abc4-13664f3001a3/, https://www.digitaltq.com/paldean-fates-pull-rates-pokemon-tcg, https://www.pokebeach.com/2024/01/paldean-fates-pull-rates-revealed). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($618.58) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($618.58) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($89.34) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates ETB | $413.50 | $62.90 | −85% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates PC ETB | $618.58 | $151.38 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Bundle | $148.01 | $33.84 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tech Sticker Collection | $47.91 | $17.67 | −63% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Mini Tin | $38.79 | $11.28 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Tin | $99.18 | $29.20 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Premium Collection | $181.75 | $42.48 | −77% | KEEP SEALED |
| Paldean Fates Booster Pack | $19.59 | $5.64 | −71% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | Mega Evolution | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |