Mega Evolution ETB
Average opening value trails the buy-in by $58.32.
9 packs plus $12.14 in promo value produce $32.84 of average market value.
Return vs Market
−64%
Compared with today's sealed market price of $91.16.
Expected Loss
−$58.32
The average opening result after paying $91.16 sealed.
Open Average
$32.84
Average market value from packs and included promos.
Cash-out EV
$21.02
Expected range $1.30-$3.30 per pack.
Price History
Recent sealed price movement for this product.
Sealed History
Sealed market price versus opening EV over time.
How the EV is Calculated
Step-by-step walkthrough of the pack EV, promo value, and cash-out assumptions.
EV per booster pack = $2.30
Sum of (average card value × pull rate) across all 5 rarity tiers. Based on 5,000 pack openings.
$2.30 × 9 packs = $20.70
This product contains 9 booster packs.
$20.70 + $12.14 promos = $32.84
Promo value uses live TCGPlayer prices for included promo cards.
$32.84 × 0.64 = $21.02
Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to account for marketplace fees, shipping, and bulk liquidity discount.
Market: $32.84 ÷ $91.16 = 36.0% • Cash-out: $21.02 ÷ $91.16 = 23.1%
Above 110% = Rip It, below 90% = Keep Sealed.
EV by Rarity Tier
Each row shows how much a rarity tier contributes to the $2.30 EV per pack for this 9-pack product.
| Rarity | Cards | Avg Value | Pull Rate | EV/Pack | EV/9pk | % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare(SIR) | 10 | $88.64 | 0.99% | $0.88 | $7.92 | 38.3% |
| Illustration Rare(IR) | 22 | $5.86 | 11.10% | $0.65 | $5.85 | 28.3% |
| Ultra Rare(UR) | 22 | $5.13 | 8.30% | $0.43 | $3.87 | 18.7% |
| Mega Hyper Rare(MHR) | 2 | $248.38 | 0.08% | $0.20 | $1.80 | 8.7% |
| Double Rare(RR) | 10 | $0.70 | 20.00% | $0.14 | $1.26 | 6.1% |
| Total | $2.30 | $20.70 | 100% | |||
Promo Cards
Promo cards tied to this product. Some releases include all shown promos, while others include a random subset.
Top 10 Cards You Could Pull
The most valuable cards in Mega Evolution, sorted by how much they contribute to EV.
Mega Gardevoir ex - 178/132
#178/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$194.47
+$1.71 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 179/132
#179/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$180.55
+$1.62 EV
Mega Venusaur ex - 177/132
#177/132 · SIR
1 in 1010 packs
$155.62
+$1.35 EV
Bulbasaur - 133/132
#133/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$22.95
+$1.08 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132
#188/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$267.15
+$0.99 EV
Ivysaur - 134/132
#134/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$20.48
+$0.90 EV
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132
#187/132 · MHR
1 in 2519 packs
$229.61
+$0.81 EV
Vulpix - 138/132
#138/132 · IR
1 in 198 packs
$14.88
+$0.72 EV
Lillie's Determination - 169/132
#169/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$21.73
+$0.72 EV
Mega Lucario ex - 160/132
#160/132 · UR
1 in 265 packs
$15.22
+$0.54 EV
Assumptions
Key pricing, pull-rate, and cash-out assumptions behind the model.
Expand assumptions
- ●Card prices are TCGPlayer market prices via TCGCSV, updated daily. Actual selling prices may differ.
- ●Pull rates are community-sourced from 5,000 pack openings (https://www.tcgplayer.com/content/article/Pokemon-TCG-Mega-Evolution-Pull-Rates/40cbeedc-21ce-473b-aef1-74e3969d9f91/, https://gamerant.com/pokemon-tcg-mega-evolution-pull-rates/, https://pokepatch.com/2025/12/16/mega-evolution-pull-rates-in-pokemon-tcg-set/). Your results will vary.
- ●MSRP is $49.99. Current sealed price ($91.16) may be above or below retail depending on supply and demand.
- ●Sealed price ($91.16) is the average TCGPlayer market price across all variants of this product.
- ●Promo value ($12.14) is based on live TCGPlayer prices.
- ●Cash-out EV applies a 0.64 multiplier to market EV (TCGPlayer fees ~15% + shipping + bulk discount/slippage).
- ●EV is an average. Any single opening can be much higher or lower. High-value chase cards are rare — most packs return bulk.
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Try Free for 1 MonthOther Products in This Set
| Product | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Evolution Booster Box | $306.13 | $82.80 | −73% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Enhanced Booster Box | $296.63 | $82.80 | −72% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution ETB | $91.16 | $32.84 | −64% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution PC ETB | $227.58 | $110.65 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Bundle | $54.88 | $13.80 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution 3 Pack Blister | $30.81 | $7.40 | −76% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Single Pack Blister | $11.77 | $2.55 | −78% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Build & Battle Box | $50.83 | $21.85 | −57% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Heroes Mini Tin | $17.72 | $4.60 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Sleeved Booster | $9.22 | $2.30 | −75% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Art Bundle | $34.94 | $9.20 | −74% | KEEP SEALED |
| Mega Evolution Booster Pack | $6.62 | $2.30 | −65% | KEEP SEALED |
Compare ETBs Across Sets
See how this etb stacks up against the same product type from other Pokémon TCG sets.
| ETB | Set | Price | Market EV | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames PC ETB | Obsidian Flames | $646.61 | $328.97 | −49% | KEEP SEALED |
| Scarlet & Violet PC ETB | Scarlet & Violet | $295.19 | $147.27 | −50% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes ETB | Ascended Heroes | $155.98 | $76.40 | −51% | KEEP SEALED |
| Stellar Crown PC ETB | Stellar Crown | $161.60 | $67.87 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable ETB | Shrouded Fable | $86.45 | $36.30 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Shrouded Fable PC ETB | Shrouded Fable | $147.71 | $61.50 | −58% | KEEP SEALED |
| Ascended Heroes PC ETB | Ascended Heroes | $480.58 | $189.48 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |
| Journey Together PC ETB | Journey Together | $192.56 | $74.82 | −61% | KEEP SEALED |